Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

Carlo Cauzzi, Yannik Behr, Thomas Le Guenan, John Douglas, Samuel Auclair, Jochen Woessner, John Clinton, Stefan Wiemar

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Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2495–2512
Number of pages18
JournalBulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Issue number9
Early online date9 Jan 2016
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 9 Jan 2016


  • earthquake early warning (EEW)
  • operational earthquake forecasting
  • nuclear power plants
  • cost benefit analysis

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