Evaluating the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections: the first 20 years

G. Kontogeorgos, K. Lambrias

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This work marks a thorough analysis of a confidential real-time dataset consisting of the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections since their existence. By applying techniques widely employed in the literature of forecast evaluation, we examine their statistical properties with a special emphasis on optimality and rationality. Long-term GDP projections are biased (tendency to overpredict), do not fully account for available information, and are outperformed by private sector expectations. Inflation projections are optimal and rational on a full-sample analysis; however, subsample analysis reveals two distinct periods with a persistent and significant bias. Before the financial crisis inflation was persistently underpredicted, while in post-2013, the bias reverses into overprediction.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)213-229
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Volume41
Issue number2
Early online date22 Jul 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Mar 2022

Keywords

  • management science and operations research
  • strategy and management
  • statistics, probability and uncertainty
  • modelling and simulation
  • computer science applications

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