Surrogate model for probabilistic modeling of atmospheric entry for small NEO's

Piyush M. Mehta, Martin Kubicek, Edmondo Minisci, Massimiliano Vasile

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

2 Citations (Scopus)
46 Downloads (Pure)


Near Earth Objects (NEOs) enter the Earths atmosphere on a regular basis. Depending on the size, object and entry parameters; these objects can burn-up through ablation (complete evaporation), undergo fragmentation of varying nature, or impact the ground unperturbed. Parameters that influence the physics during entry are either unknown or highly uncertain. In this work, we propose a probabilistic approach for simulating entry. Probabilistic modeling typically requires an expensive Monte Carlo approach. In this work, we develop and present a novel engineering approach of developing surrogate models for simulation of the atmospheric entry accounting for drag, ablation, evaporation, fragmentation, and ground impact.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSpaceflight Mechanics 2016
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 26th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting held February 14–18, 2016, Napa, California, U.S.A
EditorsRenato Zanetti, Ryan P. Russell, Martin T. Ozimek, Angela L. Bowes
Place of PublicationSan Diego, California
Number of pages16
Publication statusPublished - 14 Feb 2016
Event26th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, 2016 - Napa, United States
Duration: 14 Feb 201618 Feb 2016

Publication series

NameAdvances in the Astronautical Sciences
PublisherAmerican Astronautical Society
ISSN (Print)1081-6003


Conference26th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, 2016
Country/TerritoryUnited States


  • near earth objects
  • atmospheric entry simulation
  • entry parameters
  • fragmentation
  • ablation
  • surrogate models
  • drag
  • evaporation
  • ground impact

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