The Asia-Pacific tourism workforce of the future: using Delphi techniques to identify possible scenarios

David Solnet, Thomas Baum, Anna Kralj, Richard Robinson, Brent Ritchie, Mark Olsen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

18 Citations (Scopus)


This article addresses the challenges of long-term planning for a tourism workforce at a regional level, a significant yet underconceptualized area in the literature. We draw on Yeoman's future thinking techniques to generate a four-quadrant matrix designed to facilitate the development of scenarios that identify workforce challenges the tourism sector in the Asia- Pacific is likely to face through to 2030. Applying a modified Delphi technique, an expert panel aided in the formulation of dimensions on which our matrix is based. Their inputs over three rounds informed the development of four scenarios for the future of the tourism workforce in the Asia-Pacific. Utilizing these scenarios or "possibility spaces," the article provides a framework for discussion and a platform for workforce planning and policy within this region.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Early online date9 Dec 2013
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2014


  • tourism workforce
  • Asia-Pacific
  • scenario planning

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